11.7.2011 | 11:58
Prof. Christen Sřrensen’s speech at the European Schiller Institute Conference in Rüsselsheim, Germany on July 2, 2011
Prof. Christen Sřrensen:
Thank you. I think my presentation will be very good after yours, because I appreciate many of the points you made. I will mostly review the Angelides Report, which is also called the Financial Crisis Inquiry Report. It was a Congressional report made by ten members, six Democrats and four Republicans. It has more than 600 pages, and more than 6,000 footnotes.
It contains a lot of information which I think is very good to have in mind when we are discussing What next? I have, in fact, written 60 pages about it, so, at least myself, I will claim that I know quite a lot about it. The report is a little special because it is mostly based on interviews, and not as much on statistical data analysis, as maybe one would suppose, and its also very important to notice that it only described how the crisis developed. There are no exact suggestions about what you should do next. But, of course, if you read the report, its very difficult not to get some impression about what to do, and thats good.
My analysis of this report, I think its fair to say, is from a traditional point of view of an economist, even thought I have a critical point of view of the financial sector, I will say, as we already have heard. I think you can learn a lot from this report. One of the things is that you should always pursue a decent public policy, and you cannot get public services, unless you are ready to pay for them, and I think that is very important. That is the reality in the U.S., and it has especially been a reality in Greece, but Ill not give a hint about this now, because I will specialize in this Angelides Report.
And furthermore, I will only take two things up, especially the failures, in fact, of the credit rating agencies, which we have already heard about, and also the failures of the financial supervision institutions.
I think its very important to speculate about why there were such big failures. As we have already heard, there are three important credit rating bureaus in the world: Moodys, Standard & Poor, and Fitch, and in the Angelides Report, Moodys has been chosen to represent them, but they claim that it is also a representative for the two others, and I will quote from what they found about work of the credit rating bureau:
We conclude the failures of credit rating agencies were essential cogs in the wheel of financial destruction. The three credit rating agencies were key enablers of the financial meltdown. The mortgage-related securities at the heart of the crisis could not have been marketed and sold without their seal of approval. Investors relied on them, often blindly. In some cases, they were obligated to use them, or regulatory capital standards were hinged on them. This crisis could not have happened without the rating agencies. Their ratings helped the market soar and their downgrades through 2007 and 2008 wreaked havoc across markets and firms. (Page xxv)
Thats what they conclude in the Angelides Report, and there were two key words which they used to market those toxic papers, securities. They were mostly based on sub-prime mortgages, or All-A mortgages, and they collected a lot of them in an entity, and on that basis, they made more than 20 different residential mortgage-based securities. If you had Priority 1, you got the right to get all your money, and only if number 1 got their money, they would go further to number 2. What Moodys and the others did, was, even thought they were sub-prime mortgages, they could, by this process, turn it around so that 80% of the denominations got a triple-A rating from the bureaus.
How did they do that insane thing? They did that using very complicated models, and those who should supervise those models, didnt understand them. We already know in Denmark that people dont like to say, I dont understand. We know from Hans Christian Andersens The Emperors New Clothes, that it was a child who said, He has no clothes on.
And the way they did it, was through two things. They assimilated quite a number of scenarios. On average, in those scenarios, they assume that house prices would increase by four percent a year, and this was the first very essential assumption. The second very essential assumption, was that they said that if the price of one house goes down, it would not have implications for the others, but everybody can see that if the housing prices go down, it is not only one person who owned a house who would be hit, but it would be all, and that was why, I would nearly say that it was a criminal act, the way it was done.
And, therefore, in my opinion, as you can follow based on your presentation, I think it can be very essential to introduce Glass-Steagall, but we also need to take a much broader view of what went wrong, and therefore, I think that the Angelides Report is very important.
As we already heard, the form of the credit rating bureaus were not listed companies. In fact, that happened in 2000, and after 2000, they completely changed behavior, and I again quote from the Angelides Report:
Many former employees said that after the public listing [of Moodys] (in 2000), the company culture changed it went from [a culture] resembling a university academic department to one which values revenues at all costs, The former managing director Jerome Fons, who was responsible for assembling an internal history of Moodys agreed: The main problem was that the firm became so focused, particularly the structured area, on revenues, on market share, , that they willingly looked the other way, traded the firms reputation for short-term profits. (Page 207)
And it is further elaborated by people from Moodys in the report, and I will quote one more, because I think that is very interesting, from [Andrew] Kimball, who was the chief credit officer at Moodys:
Ideally, competition would be primarily on the basis of ratings quality, with a second component of price and a third component of service.
Unfortunately, of the three competitive factors, rating quality is proving the least powerful given the long tail in measuring performance.
The real problem is not that the market does underweights [sic] ratings quality but rather that, in some sectors, it actually penalizes quality by awarding rating mandates based on the lowest credit enhancement needed for the highest rating. Unchecked, competition on this basis can place the entire financial system at risk. It turns out that ratings quality has surprisingly few friends: issuers want high ratings; investors dont want rating downgrades; and bankers game the rating agencies for a few extra basis points on execution. (Page 210-211, Kimball memorandum from October 2007).
And that is, we have to learn a lesson from this, because the problem was that they became a listed company, and if they are depending on profit, and if your business depends on you giving good ratings, then we knew that you had moral hazard.
In economics, we also have another n for this. Its called Greshams Law, because Gresham expressed that bad things eliminate good things. Its from bimetallism, where we had both silver and gold, and many years ago, Gresham in London taught that lesson, and that is a very basic thing you have to notice that bad things can eliminate good things.
And therefore, I think that its very essential to change to maybe put the rating agencies under the supervision, or direct authority of the central banks, because it is the central banks which have to clean up the mess afterwards. So there should be a very strong reaction against that, and I think the Angelides Report tells that very clearly. So I think that what I say here is more or less in accordance with your presentation, at least thats my interpretation.
The second thing is, why did the regulators also make very big mistakes? I will again quote from the Angelides Report:
We conclude widespread failures in financial regulation and supervision proved devastating to the stability of the nations financial markets. The sentries were not at their posts, in no small part due to the widely accepted faith in the self-correcting nature of the markets and the ability of financial institutions to effectively police themselves. More than 30 years of deregulation and reliance on self-regulation by financial institutions, championed by former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan and others, supported by successive administrations and Congress, and actively pushed by the powerful financial industry at every turn, had stripped away key safeguards, which could have helped avoid catastrophe. This approach had opened up gaps in oversight of critical areas with trillions of dollars at risk, such as the shadow banking system and over-the-counter derivatives markets. In addition, the government permitted financial firms to pick their preferred regulators in what became a race to the weakest supervisor. [Prof. Sřrensen added: Greshams Law]
Yet we do not accept the view that regulators lacked the power to protect the financial system. They had ample power in many arenas and they chose not to use it. Too often, they lacked the political will in a political and ideological environment that constrained it as well as the fortitude to critically challenge the institutions and the entire system they were entrusted to oversee. (Page xviii)
Those are very tough words, I suppose. Here, I think, we can also learn a lesson, and I shall suggest two things. One of the big failures in the States was that there were so many regulatory entities, so nobody really has the responsibility for doing it well. Its not my problem. Its the others problem. And they not only have many regulatory institutions on one level, but they also have institutions on the federal level, and on the state level.
And they changed the law in such a way that the financial firms could choose their regulator, and, as they have to pay for their regulator, they chose those which offered the lowest cost, and therefore, its very dangerous to let the financial firms choose their own regulators. They should pay for it by paying into a common fund, and then the society should impose regulation on them. That is very, very interesting, so they [the regulators] would not be paid directly by themselves [the firms].
The third thing is that when you come to a big financial firm which makes a lot of money, and the CEO makes as much money as you never can dream about making during your whole life, you are very impressed by them. People are normally. Then [the Angelides Report] suggests that you should not take that attitude. Be more trusting in yourself -- to criticize. I think that that is very important.
I have taken those two points up here. I think that the Angelides Report has a lot of sources from which you can learn. How much money they used in lobbying, etc., etc. How silly they were. Its incredible. What great bonuses they awarded to themselves. You get nearly sick reading it, but that is the question.
So I will stop my presentation here. We are a little behind, but I think that you can learn a lot from the Angelides Report about how we come out [of the crisis.] And the problem is, as you also stressed, how little there has been done afterwards how little restriction there has been put on the financial sector, since the biggest crisis, at least since the 1930s, and maybe even before! So that is really astonishing that nothing more has been done, and, in fact, we have a bigger task to accomplish, because due to the financial crisis, the biggest firms are ever growing bigger, because there was a risk that some of them would go bust, so they were bought up by others. Maybe they were forced into it. At least two of the investment banks have been bought by the commercial banks. One went bust that was Lehman Brothers. That is another question. But I think that we have a very big task there.
And in my own country, Denmark, I have asked for a financial commission to investigate what happened. It is quite amazing that we dont even dare to investigate what happened in Denmark! Could we not learn anything about it? Our leading political leaders apparently seem to think not. That is rather astonishing, after such a big failure!
Video: http://schillerinstitut.dk/drupal/node/500
I thank you for listening to me. Thank you.
1.7.2011 | 22:33
WAS IT NOT TREASON?
By Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr.
July 1, 2011
Whether it were the fruit of ignorance or other folly, the 1999 repeal of the 1933 Glass-Steagall law, has had an effect comparable to that which might have been brought about through a explicit act of treason against our United States. Among nations other than our own, their lack of a standard of law equivalent to Glass-Steagall is, in effect, a fruit of either culpable malice or of a folly of ignorance. In the case of our own nation, the principle expressed as the 1933 Glass-Steagall law, had been a return to the argument which prompted the crafting of our Federal Constitution.
The resulting wave of wild-eyed, stampede of accelerating inflation, since the beginning of the 2001, has been the result of the termination of Glass-Steagall. The wild-eyed bubble of skyrocketing real-estate mortgage speculation, and related Wall Street forms of John Law-like hyperinflation in all speculative markets of the trans-Atlantic region of the world, has been the continuing consequences.
On this point, there was never an honest sort of ignorance in the implicitly treasonous motive expressed by J. P. Morgans agent Alan Greenspan, in launching the undermining, and subsequent repeal of Glass-Steagall. He, like many among that horrid pestilence known as the Wall Street, have represented, ever since Judge Lowells evil days following the Seven Years War, a horrid pestilence planted in the likeness of a filthy disease spread by our republics speculator class. The truth today, is Glass-Steagall today, or die.
I have been forecasting in a professional capacity since my first successful forecast for the national economy since late Summer of 1956, when I had first projected the most serious of the post-war depressions to break out at either the close of February 1957, or early March.
Both then, and in later forecasts, I have always rejected what is called statistical forecasts. During that interval from late Summer 1956, to the present day, the forecasts which I have made by physical-economic forecasting has always been accurate relative to the forecasts of those known to me otherwise. My advantage never depended on better statistics, but on my recognition of the inherent folly of presuming that financial-statistical methods had a consistent correlation with the movements in the physical effects of the economic process.
To make that point clearer, say that the real effects of economy do not lie within monetary systems as such, but in physical-economic processes which always, ultimately, reveal themselves to anyone. Statistical forecasting is fairly defined as a form of gambling, a form which is caught between the forces of physical-economic changes, or the lack of needed changes.
In other words, the prosperity or deep decline in a national economy of the trans-Atlantic regions, has always been a physical-economic decline in all its essential features. A financial collapse is an effect to be expected when the financial growth outruns the net physical-economic growth. It is when the discrepancy of the effect of the growth of the margin of difference between a physical and a financial increases in a self-feeding form, that the severe monetary crisis takes the chronic form known as either a trend toward hyperinflation or depression.
It is when such patterns are competently examined from their underlying physical, rather than merely financial forms, that a true physical law of economy is brought to our attention. That principle is brought to the surface as a true physical law of economy which acts in direct contradiction to the fraudulent concoction called a Second Law of Thermodynamics.
The correct law, is one of the necessity of anti-entropic long-term trends, over the recent half-billions years of life on Earth. That is the requirement that the effective net energy-flux density of living processes must increase, in the effect of the combined living species of our planet, of an increase of the energy-flux density expressed by the evolution of living species. In other words, a society which seeks to enforce a rule of fixed energy-flux density as a whole process in evolution of content and practice, is a condition of life proceeding in the direction of extinction of leading species, such as mankind.
In the science of physical economy, as distinguished from a merely monetarist economy, the requirement for the survival of the human species, is the increased energy-flux intensity of the mode of existence of that species, as from lower forms of chemistry to increasingly higher rates of capital-intensity of the development of human society generally.
Without an accelerating density of nuclear-fission, thermonuclear-fusion, and matter-anti-matter, in forms of increasing capital-intensity of both production and the higher platforms that requires, mankind would have made himself just another species to join the census of the vast ration of eliminated species, which went extinct largely because they ceased to progress in effective energy-flux density of effect per capita and per square kilometer of the Earths surface area. Today, mankind is the only species which has the potential of remaining a leading, living species.
This document presents the opening argument, as a completed statement here. However, in subsequent publications, there will be more on this subject to come.
30.6.2011 | 19:56
IS IT NOT TREASON?
By Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr.
June 30, 2011
The argument presented by Senator John Kerry, in defense of President Barack Obamas guilty violation of the Federal Constitution is, in itself, beyond all reason. The argument which the Senator presented in defense of his own shocking, utterly incompetent argument, has been one of the most disgusting pieces of sophistry on record. The question is, was that Senator blackmailed in some fashion? Certainly, submission to blackmail gives neither the Senator nor the Senate exculpatory credit. Clear and plain evidence by the errant President himself might be explained by death threats against the Senator. Since the culpability of the President himself is so clear, and so clearly proximate to treason on behalf of the British monarchy against our United States, the lack of credible explanations offered by Senator Kerry, is most troubling for those among us who had remembered him as being neither a traitor nor a fool. The President had violated the law, and that with the most flagrant shamelessness. This fact raises the question: Is this President, whose popular support is being that of a decimated minority, willing to lie his way into a coup detat conducted in British interest as a betrayal of our United States to a foreign tyrant?
A most fundamental, and clear, historical, and living principle of our Federal Constitution, is the issue at stake in this morally shabby affair:
In the matter of the Senators culpable actions in this instance, the process leading from the victory of the original Thirteen States, to the adoption of a Federal, constitutional form of our Republic, was a carefully deliberated movement of our republic, out from under existence under a European style of parliamentary monetarist system, into a sovereign republic whose only competent basis for a continuing defense, was by a credit-system, against British and other foreign predatory powers waiting to strike us afresh.
At the same time, our most ancient foe had been then, and now, the same British imperial system which became the ruling authority in all major wars experienced by our sovereign nation since the February1763 Peace of Paris through the launching of the U.S.A. into the British-lain, imperialist trap of the prolonged U.S.A. warfare in Indo-China, as also the most recent Iraq and Afghanistan wars, that Iraq war organized through a lying British Prime Minister, Tony Blair, who has been among the most disgusting of the official, stinking eggs lain by the present British Empire in its recent history.
All through the years since the outbreak of our American Revolution, the intention of the British Empire, to the last report of today, the British monarchy, has been the subversion of our republic as the chief obstacle to its ambitions for becoming a global imperial power in the tradition of the original Roman empire under Augustus Caesar. That was made the doctrine which Lord Shelburne had deployed in creating the original British Foreign Office, and which continues as a doctrine of intended practice up to the latest report of the present day.
The fact that imperialism is the characteristic of the British monarchy of today, was made clear afresh by the currently reigning Queen of England, by her public utterances in world affairs during the period of the recent Denmark proceedings on Her Imperial Majestys behalf. It was made clear by ugly threats made on behalf of the British Foreign Office, threatening the United States should there be a probable intent to re-act the original Glass-Steagall (domestic) U.S. law. The current U.S. President, a contemptible lackey known as Barack Obama, is at the beck and call to heel by the agents of the current British imperial Queen. Our disgusting President and his lackeys were successful in preventing that vote from being brought to decision under the preceding term of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Presently, the very continued existence of the United States is on the verge of extinction in its present, constitutional form. It is precisely here, on this point, that the disgusting behavior of Senator John Kerry et al. is brought home.
The crucial fact of this matter, at the present moment, is that the present international monetarist system is at the brink of the self-destruction of both the current European system, and also the ruin of the collection of formerly sovereign nation-states now kept in bondage to a British imperial domination and accelerating economic ruin by a European system which is itself careening into general chaos throughout the continental states of western and central Europe.
The crucial point at strategic issue, at this present moment, is that the pending re-enactment of the 1933 Glass-Steagall law, would transfer the corrupt form of a mass of inherently fraudulent speculative debt, from the domain of the responsibility of the Federal government and states of our Union for those specific varieties of gambling debts, back into the accounts located outside the obligations of both the Federal government and out from the obligations now crushing the states of our Federal, Constitutional union. The effect of that urgently needed, and fully valid reform, under our Federal Constitution, would create the conditions under which our looted Federal states, and the Federal Government, too, would secure, and that immediately, the ability to restore our economy, and to return justice to our presently looted and menaced citizens.
The question is thus posed: Who in Hell is Senator John Kerry serving with the corrupt attempts to assist the British imperial Monarchy to destroy our freedoms and reduce our citizens to a most murderous form of destitution?
Senator John Kerry must answer that question honestly, with no slippery evasions of the type made in his search of the appearance of legality in an action which goes to the heart of the violation of our Federal Constitution. Throw the usurers out of the Temple, John, and abandon your recently wicked ways!
27.5.2011 | 11:33
WHAT IS OUR CONSTITUTION?
However, for reasons chiefly located in the Habsburg dynastys apparently inherent disposition for corruption of the Spanish and Portguese systems, the realization of the essentials of Cusas intentions first appeared in the founding of Massachusetts by the combined actionss of the Mayflower party, and of the Massachusetts Bay Colony under the leadership of the Winthrops and Mathers. It was here, that the future United States emerged as a form of nation-state which has been unmatched in its quality of political-economy, since the revival of that Massachusetts colonys actual intention as the original Constitution of our United States.
What has happened to us since those times? What happened to tend to ruin our Federal Constitution up to the present day? What might be the remedy near at hand for the failures which our nation is suffering presently? I explain.
More: http://www.larouchepac.com/node/1827025.5.2011 | 14:10
Gagnrýndi bónusgreiđslur bankamanna ??
Steingrímur J. Sigfússon, fjármálaráđherra, sagđi á vorfundi OECD í París í gćr ađ algjör umbylting verđi ađ eiga sér stađ hjá fjármálastofnum og ţeirri hugmyndafrćđi sem hafi veriđ viđ lýđi viđ stjórnun ţessara stofnanna. Nefndi hann sérstaklega bónusgreiđslur til bankamanna.
Samkvćmt upplýsingum frá fjármálaráđuneytinu flutti Steingrímur erindi í gćr á málstofu um endurreisn trausts á fjármálakerfum ţar sem lögđ var áhersla á fjármálareglur, eftirlit og neytendavernd.
Fjallađi Steingrímur ţar um reynslu Íslands af fjármálakreppunni og hvađa lćrdóm megi draga af ţeirri reynslu. Sagđi hann međal annars í erindi sínu ađ vandinn sem mörg ríki standa frammi fyrir verđi ekki ađeins leystur međ ţví ađ herđa á regluverki og eftirliti. Algjör umbylting verđi ađ eiga sér stađ hjá fjármálastofnunum sjálfum og ţeirri hugmyndafrćđi sem hefur veriđ viđ lýđi viđ stjórnun ţessara stofnanna.
Steingrímur sagđi einnig, ađ svara ţyrfti erfiđum spurningum um innstćđutryggingakerfi, á borđ viđ hvort slík kerfi nytu ríkisábyrgđar eđa vćru eingöngu á ábyrgđ bankanna.
Í viđtali viđ Reutersfréttastofuna sagđi Steingrímur, ađ veriđ vćri ađ undirbúa endurkomu Íslands á fjármálamarkađi.
21.5.2011 | 20:54
Drastic Warning in Germany against New Bailout
9.5.2011 | 17:27
EMERGENCY RESOLUTION: Glass Steagall Now!
9.5.2011 | 14:05
If Everybody's Borrowing, Where's the Money Coming From?
9.5.2011 | 14:04
Europe Playing "Hide the Bankruptcy"as Fascism Grows
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